Keywords
East Timor
economics
resource curse
oil and gas
How to Cite
-
Abstract498
-
PDF (Español)414
-
HTML (Español)8
Abstract
After Timor-Leste restored independence in 2002, the new nation established a rigorous system to manage oil and gas revenues and activities, based on international best practice. Policymakers hoped that it would protect the small nation from the ‘resource curse’ which afflicts countries that depend on exporting non-renewable wealth. Within five years, petroleum exports were financing 85% of the state budget and comprised 75% of GDP. By 2021, with its known oil and gas reserves nearly depleted, Timor-Leste has made little progress toward diversifying into a sustainable economy or alleviating poverty and malnutrition. This paper explores what happened, and try to explain why well-intentioned legal and structural measures were not sufficient to avert the ‘paradox of plenty.’
References
Alizada, Nazifa, Rowan Cole, Lisa Gastaldi, Sandra Grahn, Sebastian Hellmeier, Palina Kolvani, Jean Lachapelle, Anna Lührmann, Seraphine F. Maerz, Shreeya Pillai y Staffan I. Lindberg. 2021. Autocratization Turns Viral. Democracy Report 2021. Gotemburgo: University of Gothenburg y V-Dem Institute. http://v-dem.net/democracy_reports.html
Alkatiri, Mari. 2003. “Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (eiti) London Conference, 17 June 2003. Statement by H.E. Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri”. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/EITI/03AlkatiriEITI.htm
Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo e Minerais. 2018. “Interactive Map” (mapa interactivo de las áreas de contrato del mar de Timor). https://web.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/pgLafaekMap
Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo e Minerais. 2022. “ANP: JPDA Production, Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE)” (datos de producción e ingresos de la JPDA). https://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/pgLafaekDataGasListHTML o www.anpm.tl/publish-what-you-pay/ o http://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/pgLafaekActivityList?openview&RestrictToCategory=Feb-2022
Banco Central de Timor-Leste. 2022. Informes anuales, trimestrales y mensuales del Fondo Petrolero. https://www.bancocentral.tl/en/go/publications-key-report-petroleum-fund-report
Barma, Naazneen. 2021. “Do Petroleum Rents Fuel Conflict in Developing Countries? A Case Study of Political Instability in Timor-Leste”. Energy Research & Social Science 75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102018
Barma, Naazneen, Kai Kaiser, Tuan Minh Le y Lorena Viñuela. 2012. Rents to Riches?: The Political Economy of Natural Resource Led Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2381
Bertelsmann Stiftung. 2022. BTI 2022 Country Report — Timor-Leste. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung. https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/TLS
Collier, Paul. 2010. “The Political Economy of Natural Resources”. Social Research 77 (4): 1105-1132. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5c649dfd-7738-4178-a1ee-1e0d151c3741
DGE (Direcção Geral de Estatística, República Democrática de Timor-Leste). 2019. Business Activity Survey 2018. Dili: Direcção Geral de Estatística Timor-Leste-Ministério das Finanças. https://www.statistics.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/FINAL_Publication-BAS2018-English.pdf o https://www.laohamutuk.org/DVD/DGS/BAS2018en.pdf
DGE (Direcção Geral de Estatística, República Democrática de Timor-Leste). 2021. Timor-Leste National Accounts 2000-2020. Dili: Direcção-Geral de Estatística-Ministério das Finanças de Timor-Leste. https://www.statistics.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Timor-Leste-National-Accounts-2000-2019-Versaun-Final_201008.pdf o https://www.laohamutuk.org/DVD/DGS/NatlAccts2020en.pdf
Economist Intelligence Unit. 2022. Democracy Index 2021. Londres: The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2021/
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 2021. Annual Energy Outlook 2021. Washington, D.C.: EIA. https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 2022. Short-term Energy Outlook. (Pronóstico de febrero de 2022). Washington, D.C.: EIA. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
Evans, Damon. 2020. “Sunset at East Timor’s Greater Sunrise lng after Woodside Write-down”. Energy Voice, 22 de julio de 2020. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/254153/sunset-at-east-timors-greater-sunrise-lng-after-woodside-write-down/
Evans, Damon. 2022. “East Timor NGO Hits out at Santos’ Carbon Storage Plans for Barossa LNG”. Energy Voice, 15 de febrero de 2022. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/387738/east-timor-ngo-hits-out-at-santos-carbon-storage-plans-for-barossa-lng/
Humphreys, Macartan, Jeffrey Sachs y Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2007. Escaping the Resource Curse. Nueva York, NY: Columbia University Press.
IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2021. Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Timor-Leste. Country Report 2021/152. Washington, D.C.: IMF. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/07/14/Timor-Leste-2021-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-462155
Inder, Brett y Nan Qu. 2019. Coffee in Timor-Leste: What Do We Know? What Can We Do? Monash University Research Briefs on Timor-Leste (RB-TL1). Melbourne: Monash University. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oMufKgFvLVGPjvfPOPSiFK1pOzWthK1j
International Budget Partnership. 2020. “Open Budget Survey 2019: Timor-Leste”. https://www.internationalbudget.org/open-budget-survey/country-results/2019/timor-leste
John, Samuel, Elissaios Papyrakis y Luca Tasciotti. 2020. “Is There a Resource Curse in Timor-Leste? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence”. Development Studies Research 7 (1): 141-152. https://doi.org/10.1080/21665095.2020.1816189
Karl, Terry Lynn. 1997. Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
La’o Hamutuk. 2004. “Submission to the Petroleum Fund Steering Group, Ministry of Planning and Finance, regarding the Public Consultation Discussion Paper on Establishing a Petroleum Fund for Timor-Leste”. 5 de diciembre de 2004. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/Consult/LH%20PetFund%20submission.pdf
La’o Hamutuk. 2005. “Enactment of Timor-Leste Petroleum Regime”. Agosto de 2004-agosto de 2005. http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetRegime/05PetrolActPassage.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2006a. “Press Releases and Articles about tsda 2006 Bidding Round”. http://www.laohamutuk.org/OilWeb/JPDA/TSDAbidround06/JPDABidRound2006.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2006b. “Timor-Leste First Licensing Round, 2005-6”. http://www.laohamutuk.org/OilWeb/RDTLdocs/Licensing/Licensing06.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2007. “Second Submission to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Minerals and Energy Policy from La’o Hamutuk Regarding the Legislative Package on Reorganizing Petroleum Industry Activities in Timor-Leste”. 27 de julio de 2007. http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetRegime/Restruc/07RestructLHSub2Jul07.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2008. Sunrise lng in Timor-Leste: Dreams, Realities and Challenges. Dili: Timor-Leste Institute for Reconstruction Monitoring and Analysis. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/LNG/LNGReport.pdf
La’o Hamutuk. 2010. “Submission to the Ministry of Finance regarding the Proposed Revision of the Petroleum Fund Law”. 5 de noviembre de 2010. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/revision/LHSubRevPFLaw5Nov2010En.pdf
La’o Hamutuk. 2012. “Trying to Scam a Billion from the Petroleum Fund”. Última actualización: 11 de julio de 2012. https://www.lao-hamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/ACI/10AsianChampInvestment.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2015. “How Long Will the Petroleum Fund Carry Timor-Leste?”. Última actualización: 23 de junio de 2015. http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/model/13PFSustainability.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2017. “Power Plant and National Electrical Grid 2011-17. Mega-project o Mega-problem”. Última actualización: 11 de septiembre de 2017. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Power/2011/11PowerPlant2011.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2019. “South Coast Petroleum Infrastructure Project”. Última actualización: 2 de abril de 2019. http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/TasiMane/11TasiMane.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2020. “2016-2020: Compulsory Conciliation Leads to a Maritime Boundary Treaty between Australia and Timor-Leste”. Última actualización: 18 de junio de 2020. http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Boundary/18ConcilTreaty.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2021a. “Chinese Involvement in Timor-Leste: Myths and Facts”, 28 de octubre de 2021. https://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/ChinaInTLMisereorOctober2021en.pdf
La’o Hamutuk. 2021b. “Creating a Mining Code for Timor-Leste”. Última actualización: 5 de julio de 2021. http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Mining/17MiningLaw.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2021c. “Making the Oil Companies Pay What They Owe”. Última actualización: 20 de enero de 2021. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/tax/10BackTaxes.htm#collect
La’o Hamutuk. 2021d. “Bobby Boye: Convict, Advisor and Fraud”. Última actualización: 15 de enero de 2021. https://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/corruption/Boye/14BoyeCase.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2021e. “Carbon Capture and Storage under the Timor Sea: Climate Change Prevention or Carbon Colonialism?”. 26 de junio de 2021. https://laohamutuk.blogspot.com/2021/06/carbon-capture-and-storage-under-timor.html
La’o Hamutuk. 2021f. “Timor-Leste Buys into the Sunrise Oil and Gas Project”. Última actualización: 18 de noviembre de 2020. http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Sunrise/18SunriseBuyout.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2022a. “2022 General State Budget”. Última actualización: 3 de marzo de 2022. https://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/OGE22/21OGE22.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2022b. “Petroleum Projects and Production Sharing Contracts”. Última actualización: 8 de marzo de 2022. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PSCs/10PSCs.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2022c. “[Operation of] Timor-Leste Petroleum Fund”. Última actualización: 4 de febrero de 2022. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/05PFIndex.htm
La’o Hamutuk. 2022d. “TimorGAP: Timor-Leste’s National Oil Company”. Última actualización: 23 de febrero de 2022. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetRegime/NOC/10Petronatil.htm
Lundahl, Mats y Fredrik Sjöholm. 2019. The Creation of the East Timorese Economy. Volume 2: Birth of a Nation. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22052-5
Ministério das Finanças, República Democrática de Timor-Leste. 2021a. Jornada Orsamentál ba OJE 2022: Jestaun Fundu Petrolíferu, 29 de junio de 2021. https://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/OGE22/JO/210625JOFiskal.pdf
Ministério das Finanças, República Democrática de Timor-Leste. 2021b. “Amendment No. 15”. Dili, 30 de junio de 2021. https://www.bancocentral.tl/uploads/documentos/documento_1626397613_8407.pdf o http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/2021/210630BCTL-MF%20mandatePF%20investments.pdf
Ministério das Finanças, República Democrática de Timor-Leste. 2022a. “2022 State Budget - Approved”. https://www.mof.gov.tl/category/documents-and-forms/budget-documents/state-budget-2022-approved o https://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/OGE22/21OGE22.htm#docs
Ministério das Finanças, República Democrática de Timor-Leste. 2022b. “Current Year’s Budget”. Timor-Leste Budget Transparency Portal. http://www.budgettransparency.gov.tl/public/index?&lang=en
Ministério do Planeamento e Finanças, República Democrática de Timor-Leste. 2004. Establishing a Petroleum Fund for Timor-Leste. Public Consultation Discussion Paper. Dili: Ministério do Planea- mento e Finanças. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/Consult/TL%20MOPF%20Fund%20discussion%20paper.pdf
Natural Resource Governance Institute. 2017. “Timor-Leste Oil & Gas Country Profile 2017”. https://resourcegovernanceindex.org/country-profiles/TLS/oil-gas?years=2017
Revenue Watch. 2010. 2010 Revenue Watch Index. Nueva York, NY: Revenue Watch Institute-Transparency International. https://www.resourcegovernance.org/rwindex2010/pdf/RevenueWatchIndex_2010pdf
RDTL (República Democrática de Timor-Leste). 2005a. “Lei N.° 9/ 2005 de 3 de agosto. Lei do Fundo Petrolífero”. Jornal da República. http://www.mj.gov.tl/jornal/public/docs/2002_2005/leis_parlamento_nacional/9_2005.pdf
RDTL (República Democrática de Timor-Leste). 2005b. “Lei N.° 13/ 2005 de 2 de setembro. Lei das Actividades Petrolíferas”. Jornal da República. http://www.mj.gov.tl/jornal/public/docs/2002_2005/leis_parlamento_nacional/13_2005.pdf
RDTL (República Democrática de Timor-Leste). 2021. “Resolução do Governo N.º 133/2021 de 15 de dezembro. Aprova o Projeto de Investimento da Sociedade Comercial Pelican Paradise Group Limited e a Minuta do Respetivo Acordo Especial de Investimento”. Jornal da República, serie i, núm. 50A. http://www.mj.gov.tl/jornal/public/docs/2021/serie_1/SERIE_I_No_50_A.pdf
RDTL (República Democrática de Timor-Leste). 2022a. “Lei N.º 1/ 2022 de 3 de janeiro. Orçamento Geral do Estado para 2022”. Jornal da República, serie i, núm. 1. http://www.mj.gov.tl/jornal/public/docs/2022/serie_1/SERIE_I_NO_1.pdf
RDTL (República Democrática de Timor-Leste). 2022b. “Lei N.º 2/ 2022 de 10 de fevereiro. Enquadramento do Orçamento Geral do Estado e da gestão financeira”. Jornal da República, serie i, núm. 7A. http://www.mj.gov.tl/jornal/public/docs/2022/serie_1/SERIE_I_NO_7_A.pdf
Robert, John. 2022. “Santos’ Proposed New Darwin Harbour Pipeline for Barossa Gas – Potentially Enabling a ccs Scheme – Remains Problematic”. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, febrero de 2022. https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Santos_Proposed-New-Darwin-Harbour-Pipeline-for-Barossa-Gas-Remains-Problematic_February-2022.pdf
Ross, Michael. 2018. “The Politics of the Resource Curse: A Review”. En The Oxford Handbook of the Politics of Development, editado por Carol Lancaster y Nocolas van de Walle. Nueva York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Ryan-Kane, Peter. 2010. From Oil to Financial Assets: Planning for a Sustainable Future for Timor-Leste. Nueva York, NY: Towers Watson. https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/revision/Peter6Mar10En.pdf
Santos. 2022. “Company Reporting” (Informes trimestrales de actividades a ASX). https://www.santos.com/investors/company-reporting/
Scheiner, Charles. 2015. “Can the Petroleum Fund Exorcise the Resource Curse from Timor-Leste?”. En A New Era? Timor-Leste after the UN, editado por Sue Ingram, Lia Kent y Andrew McWilliam, 73-101. Canberra: ANU Press. https://doi.org/10.22459/NE.09.2015
Scheiner, Charles. 2020. “Implications of Recent Changes to Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund”. En Understanding Hatene kona ba Compreender. Timor-Leste 2019, editado por Steven Farram, Dulce Martins da Silva, Leonardo F. Soares, Nuno Canas Mendes, Clinton Fernandes, Mica Barreto Soares, Uka Pinto, Hannah Loney, Robert L. Williams, Claudino Ninas Nabais y Michael Leach, 318-330. Melbourne: Swinburne University of Technology. https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/27b705e3-fda5-481d-927d-4bec1b7245d5/1/2020-farram-proceedings_volume_1.pdf [version actualizada: https://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/2020/ImplicationsPetroleumFundMay2020en.pdf]
Scheiner, Charles. 2021. “Timor-Leste: 2021 Economic Survey: The End of Petroleum Income”. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies 8 (2): 253-279. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.333
TimorGAP, E.P. 2020. Informes anuales. https://timorgap.com/databases/website.nsf/vwAllNew2/Annual%20Reports o http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetRegime/NOC/10Petronatil.htm#docs
Transparency International. 2022. Corruption Perceptions Index 2021. Berlín: Transparency International. https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021/index/tls
Tribunal de Recurso, República Democrática de Timor-Leste. 2021a. Relatório e Parecer sobre a Conta Geral do Estado 2020. Dili: Tribunal de Recurso. https://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/OGE20/exec/RPCGE-2020.pdf
Tribunal de Recurso, República Democrática de Timor-Leste. 2021b. Relatório de Auditoria N.º 3/2021. Auditoria de Conformidade ao Fornecimento de Combustíveis para as Centrais Elétricas de Hera e de Betano. Anos 2013 a 2019. Dili: Tribunal de Recurso. https://www.tribunais.tl/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021_03_RELATORIO_COMBUSTIVEIS.pdf
UNDP (United Nations Development Program). 2011. Timor-Leste Human Development Report 2011: Managing Natural Resources for Human Development. Dili: UNDP https://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/HDI10/TLHDR2011En.pdf
UNDP (United Nations Development Program). 2018. National Human Development Report 2018: Timor-Leste. Nueva York, NY: UNDP. https://hdr.undp.org/en/content/national-human-development-report-2018-timor-leste
UNDP (United Nations Development Program). 2020. Human Development Report 2020. Nueva York, NY: UNDP. hdr.undp.org/en/2020-report
Westwood Global Energy. 2019. “The State of Exploration 2019”. 7 de mayo de 2019. https://www.westwoodenergy.com/news/the-state-of-exploration-2019
World Bank. 2021. Timor-Leste Public Expenditure Review. Changing Course: Towards Better and More Sustainable Spending. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/timor-leste/publication/timor-leste-public-expenditure-review-changing-course-towards-better-and-more-sustainable-spending
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2022 Estudios de Asia y África